US Economic Outlook: August 2025

Inflation is back on the rise. The July CPI release confirms the end of disinflation, with persistent services prices and reflating goods costs reshaping the business environment.

In this month’s 10-minute outlook, Board Principal Economist Natalie Gallagher unpacks what persistent inflation and restrictive Fed policy mean for margins, capital allocation, and supply chains through 2026.

This update covers:

• Why sticky-price inflation has turned higher after 18 months of decline
• The end of goods disinflation as tariffs ripple through restocking cycles
• Why September rate cuts are unlikely – and what would change that outlook
• Three imperatives leaders should act on now: efficiency, resilience, and scenario planning

If your business is exposed to inflation, rates, or supply chains, this is essential context for navigating Q4 and beyond.